Wrong time zone — if both this Timezone and your store's time zone are UTC, a 14:00 cutoff is 7:30 PM in India. Set your store's time zone or pick Asia/Kolkata here.
No courier time in the estimate — include delivery time in Processing Time for now.
Pincode doesn't change the date — remote areas get the same estimate as metros. Be generous.
No per-product processing time — one value for the whole store.
Holidays you forget — the estimate assumes you work. Add festival closures in advance.
Recurring holidays repeat on the same date each year; festivals that move (Diwali, Holi, Eid) must be added each year.
Changing settings affects estimates from then on; shoppers who already saw an estimate aren't told.
Cutoff exactly at the time — an order placed at 14:00 with a 14:00 cutoff counts from the next day.